TCU is 8-2 both straight up and against the spread over its last ten Big 12 conference games, while Texas Tech is 2-12 SU and 5-8-1 ATS in its last 14 conference contests. The preseason favorites to win the Big 12 begin their conference slate on the road when the Horned Frogs take on the Red Raiders Saturday afternoon in Lubbock.
Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.3-27.7 Horned Frogs
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
Texas Christian is off to a 3-0 start to this season, including a 56-37 victory over SMU last week. The Frogs spotted the Mustangs the first touchdown of the game, then scored 42 of the next 52 points to take control.
They allowed Southern Methodist to get within five points midway through the fourth quarter but put the game away with a pair of late scores. TCU racked up 720 yards of offense, 266 on the ground, while quarterback Trevone Boykin enhanced his Heisman chances by throwing five touchdown passes and running for another.
The Frogs opened this season with a 23-17 victory at Minnesota, then spanked Stephen F. Austin 70-7.
With 15 starters back from a team that probably should have made the College Football Playoff last year, including 10 on offense, TCU is shooting for nothing less than a playoff appearance this season.
Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders can cover the spread
Texas Tech, which won four games all of last season, is also off to a 3-0 start to this season, and 2-0-1 ATS, after upsetting Arkansas last week in Fayetteville, 35-24, winning outright as a 10-point road dog. The Raiders took a 7-0 lead less than five minutes into the game and never trailed, stiffening in the second half to hold the Hogs to a single field goal. Texas Tech outgained Arkansas 486-424 and went 7-for-10 on third-down conversions, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes hit on 26 of 30 pass attempts, keeping the chains moving.
The Red Raiders opened this season with a 59-45 victory over Sam Houston, pushing the spread as two-touchdown favorites by allowing the Bearkats to score the last two meaningless touchdowns of the game, the second one with less than two minutes to go. Texas Tech then topped UTEP 69-20, covering at minus-20.
The Raiders returned 17 starters this season, their third under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. And college football teams often make great strides in their third seasons under new coaching regimes.
To reach the College Football Playoff, TCU needs to win the Big 12, and it can't do that by opening its conference slate with a loss to an inferior team. Even a close victory could be harmful to its playoff chances. Also, Texas Tech is coming off an upset victory over an SEC team and might be ripe for a letdown. The smart choice here is with the Frogs, playing on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable.
TCU is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the Big 12.
Texas Tech is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games against the Big 12.
Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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Texas and Texas Tech meet for an inter-state matchup in the Big-12. With both teams at 4-4, the only thing they can concern themselves with at this point is improving their bowl season prospects. I have to assume that they’ll get a couple more wins, one team who will obviously pick up a win today. There is no such thing as ties in college football, so no need to worry about that. All indications show that Texas head coach Charlie Strong is on the way out as head coach. I don’t know if it’s the right move going to Tom Herman, which reports are indicating, but Strong is not working out at Texas. The Longhorns haven’t been a contender since the Colt McCoy days, and with each passing season Texas’ fans are getting restless with their product on the field.
The Longhorns and Red Raiders squeaked out wins last week, a 35-34 win for Texas and 27-24 in overtime for Texas Tech. Both were underdogs, but both escaped with big wins on the season. They needed those wins to stay competitive in 2016. 3-5 for Texas would have been a death sentence for Charlie Strong, if it isn’t already. Nevertheless, I give the Longhorns a lot of credit going out and beating Baylor in the face of all the drama surrounding the head coaching position. Texas go to Lubbock as short favorites Saturday afternoon.
If there any positives to get out of this season in Austin, it’s that I think they found their quarterback of the future. Freshman Shane Buechele has looked great, all the way from opening weekend against Notre Dame to November. He also has a lot of growing to do as well, so I expect him to have a promising career with Texas. Charlie Strong probably won’t be there to watch him evolve, but Herman will probably have a good quarterback waiting for him in Austin. Buechele has thrown for 17 touchdowns and 6 interceptions with 2,013 yards. Offense is not the problem at the University of Texas, though. I will talk about their issues below, along with what the Red Raiders need to do to be successful in this game.Texas Longhorns vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAF Betting Odds:
vs. Texas Tech +3.5(-110)Texas vs. Texas Tech Pick:
If you’ve been following college football this season, even just a little bit, I probably don’t need to tell you what is wrong with the Longhorns this season. The defense has been in shambles, falling off a cliff from where they were a season ago. Their secondary was statistically the best in the Big-12, they were not an easy team to pass the ball on. They look like an entirely different team in 2016, a team which ranks not only at the back of the Big-12 but in the entire country. Texas are 112th in total yards surrendered per game, allowing an abysmal 462 yards. They’ve slipped all the way to 94th against the pass, and are currently 97th defending the run.
Texas are lucky for their offense. Without Buechele there is no telling how bad the Longhorns would be this season, because the points would have been hard to come by with Tyrone Swoopes starting at quarterback. Texas have been fairly potent on the ground and through the air. They’ve had a nice little balance between their running attack and Buechele. The Longhorns are ranked 26th in rushing and 42nd passing, while averaging 36 points per game.
Texas Tech uncharacteristically had a solid game on defense last week. This coming after Oklahoma scored virtually every time they had the ball the previous week, putting up 66 points in a 66-59 win. The TCU offense was frustrated against the Texas Tech defense. There is something you won’t hear every week. The Red Raiders are still 126th in yards given up per game with 518 yards. They are also allowing 41.4 points per game, 123rd in the nation. The offense was uncharacteristically bad last week though, so it was the twilight zone for the Red Raiders.
Despite that, Mahomes is still 1st if the FBS, passing for 500.6 yards per game. The next closest team is Louisiana Tech who have 376 yards per game. You will never find me saying a total of 81 is too low, but I’m going to say it here. I think 85 or 86 is a better number, in a contest I see finishing with a final score of 45-40. Texas Tech and Texas played to a 48-45 game last season, and with both defenses even worse than last season, I don’t see why the fireworks aren’t flying again.
With six teams in the top 25 in the AP rankings and seven in the top-30 in terms of RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), a tool used by the NCAA Selection Committee to evaluate teams, there is no denying that the Big 12 was college basketball’s best conference in the 2015-16 season.
So look no further than the Big 12 championship tournament, which kicks off Wednesday, as the one that is can’t miss during ESPN’s championship week (March 9 – 12).
The tournament opens with a pair of first round games as #8 seeded Kansas State takes on #9 Oklahoma State and #10 TCU takes on #7 Texas Tech. Tech enter the Big 12 championship tournament with wins against the nation’s sixth best team in Oklahoma, and against Iowa State, Baylor and Texas, all ranked within the top-25. Ranked 36 th in the country, the Red Raiders are definitely a team that opponents should not take lightly.
Assuming Texas Tech does win their opening game, they’ll be headed for a showdown with the country’s 9 th best team in West Virginia, who enters the tournament as the second highest seed and a recipient of a first round bye. The other bye goes of course to Kansas, unquestionably the best team in the country right now.
Ranked #1 in the nation, Kansas is coming off of an 11-game winning streak which helped the Jayhawks to secure their 12 th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. Of the top teams, only Michigan State received consideration to be #1 as Kansas, with 63 of 65 votes, almost earned a unanimous decision.
Kansas, which never fell below #7 in the AP Top-25, spent a two-week stint at the top before ceding to another Big 12 tournament favorite, Oklahoma. The two battled as the top teams in the nation for a five-week long period with Oklahoma, aided by player of the year Buddy Hield (pictured), emerging on top. Kansas would linger within striking distance and when the Big East’s Villanova lost against conference foe Xavier, the Jayhawks would take over the rankings and not look back.
A strong team with an incredibly talented roster, Kansas is a favorite to emerge past the field and win the conference championship and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. A win also practically ensures the Jayhawks will be the overall #1 seed come time for the big dance, a tournament that right now has them listed among early prohibitive favorites.
But Kansas, like the rest of the Big 12 hopefuls, has a tough draw as the tournament moves on to the semifinals. Assuming Kansas defeats either Kansas State, which they have by a total of 27 points over the two victories this season, or Oklahoma State, which did manage to win one of the two meetings this season, the Jayhawks will move on to face either Texas or Baylor.
Seeded #4 and ranked 23 rd in the nation, Texas is an imposing team but one with definite holes. The Longhorns defeated West Virginia in both meetings and also managed a victory over Oklahoma, but lost uncharacteristically to Washington and Connecticut. They have shown the potential in a tough conference but there’s part of the rub. The Big 12 is such a tough conference and against Baylor, a team which Texas is 1-1 with the most recent game being a lopsided defeat in favor of the Bears, the Longhorns cannot afford any mistakes.
Baylor is much like Texas in that regard. They finished the season as the fifth best team in the Big 12 and as the 22 nd best team in the country. If they can get past Texas, they’ll have Kansas to look forward to and the Jayhawks defeated them soundly this season by a total of 34 points. This was only a slightly better account of defeat than Texas, which lost to Kansas by 39 total points in their two meetings.
Assuming these kinds of results hold, Kansas will at the very least, reach the finals, where they would take on the winner of the West Virginia (assuming WVU defeats Texas Tech or TCU) Oklahoma/Iowa State game.
Moving lower down the bracket is the matchup between former top team in the nation in Iowa State, currently ranked 21 st . This might actually be the most intriguing matchup not in the finals because the Sooners and the Cyclones have played each other well this season, with each team walking away with a win. In fact, Iowa State defeated Oklahoma when the team was #1, costing them that very standing. Iowa State also defeated Kansas making them the only Big 12 team to defeat both this year. It’s even more impressive because they did it within a three-week span.
So if there is any team not named Oklahoma or Kansas that could win the Big 12, Iowa State certainly has to be the favorite to do so. And like they did before, they’ll have to do it in that three-week span.Big 12 Championship Tournament Picks Predictions
Of the top USA sportsbooks, the highly-rated 5Dimes have already posted their tournament odds on the Big 12 Championship, which can be found in their basketball futures section. They bet on the Big 12 tournament winner, with the championship game taking place at Sprint Center, Kansas City on Saturday March 12, as follows:
I really like Iowa State in the role of spoiler, preventing the seemingly inevitable clash between those teams shorter in the betting lines. It’s never too early to start thinking Cinderella and Iowa State would certainly fill that mold.
While my championship final looks a little different than most, where I bend to convention is when it comes to crowning a winner. It’s Kansas and it’s really not even up for debate.
Yes, Iowa State did defeat Kansas, but Kansas also defeated Iowa State and with a much bigger margin. Kansas is the best team in college basketball right now and they’ll continue to prove that, riding their momentum all the way to the Big 12 Championship and the NCAA tournament after that.Best Sportsbooks For USA Online Sports Betting:
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If TCU wants to remain undefeated and put the Big 12 on notice, the Horned Frogs will need to get past Oklahoma State this Saturday. They are 1-4 SU and ATS against the Cowboys since joining the conference back in 2012. The lone win came in 2014 when then-quarterback Trevone Boykin went off for 410 offensive yards.Shark Bites
SMU kept things a little closer than TCU would have liked last week but the Horned Frogs went off for 21 points in the fourth quarter to put that one away. Quarterback Kenny Hill has thrown for eight touchdowns and just two interceptions through the non-conference schedule while sharing the ball among a deep group of receivers. The defense needs to be better than it was against SMU if TCU wants to somehow slow down Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State has arguably the best offense in the nation, sitting second in points and offensive yards per game. Mason Rudolph thrust himself into the Heisman conversation with 1,135 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to one interception through three games. The defense has kept opponents to just 17.3 ppg, thanks to the necessity of opponents needing to constantly play catch-up.Opening Odds & Computer Pick
Several shops tracked by OddsShark (including Bovada) set the point spread at -11.5 for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. NCAA football bettors had to wait for the opening OVER/UNDER value, which was not available at press time (check the live lines pages here for the latest totals updates).
OddsShark computer score prediction models picked a possible 46-30 win for the Cowboys early in the week. That score may change during the week, if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the college football picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NCAAF matchups here.Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
Oklahoma State battles the TCU Horned Frogs, currently with a 3-0 mark (2-1 ATS). The OVER/UNDER records, important for totals betting, are 2-1 for the Cowboys and 1-2 for the Horned Frogs. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Oklahoma State vs TCU injuries news.
It's a betting matchup between the No. 5-rated Oklahoma State Cowboys and the No. 58-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, according to the NCAA College Football Power Rankings here at OddsShark.Statistical Matchup
Offensively, the game matches up the Oklahoma State Cowboys' No. 4-ranked offense (54 PPG) against a TCU Horned Frogs defense that ranks No. 22 at 14.33 PPG. The Cowboys passing attack has averaged 407.33 yards per game, more than the Horned Frogs give up through the air (172.67 YPG on average).
Defensively, TCU features the league's No. 45-rated road run defense, allowing 129 yards per game. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, ranks No. 8 in rushing offense at home.Recent Outings Betting Recap
In TCU's last outing, Kenny Hill threw for 365 yards to lead the Horned Frogs over SMU 56-36 at Amon Carter Stadium.
In their last game, Oklahoma State's aerial attack generated 497 yards and the Cowboys came away with a 59-21 victory over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field.Betting Trends
TCU home to West Virginia, Saturday, October 7
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, Saturday, September 30Upcoming Events NCAAF News
Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 7
It’s been a special season so far. I’m now 23-10 against the spread with my column picks after going a perfect 5-0 last week. My personal.Betting with Bitcoin
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