A correct score bet is a bet on the exact score of a match at the end of normal time.
A correct score betting market lists the possible final scores for a particular sporting fixture. Odds are assigned to each of these. The odds roughly reflect the statistical chances of the game or match ending with the score in question.
Punters bet on the scores they think will be on the final scoreboard. Because the odds on offer are so high, it’s usually possible to bet on several different correct score options and still earn an overall profit if one of the bets wins.When is correct score betting offered?
Correct score betting is most often associated with football betting. However, it may be offered on any sport in which scores are low enough to make it practical for bookmakers to provide odds for all the possible score outcomes. This includes sports like tennis, squash and hockey. Correct score betting tends to offer much higher odds than regular match betting markets.Football examples
Example 1: Chelsea takes on Barcelona in the Champions League. A bookmaker offers a selection of odds in the correct score market, ranging from odds of 10/1 for a 1-0 win to Chelsea to odds of 500/1 for a 10-0 win to Barcelona. A punter predicts that the match will be won 2-1 by Chelsea, an option that’s priced by the bookmaker at 11/2. The final score of the match is 2-1 to Barcelona, so the bet loses.
Example 2: France plays Italy at the European Championships. A bookmaker offers odds ranging from 5/1 for a 1-1 draw to 500/1 for a 10-0 win to Italy. After researching the form of both sides, a punter decides to bank on the match producing a 1-1 draw. The final score of the match is indeed 1-1, so the punter’s bet is paid out at odds of 5/1.Correct score tennis betting
In tennis, correct score betting is usually offered on the outcome of a specific set. Some bookmakers also offer in-running betting on the score for a specific game. Set betting is another variation of correct score betting. In this case, you bet on the number of sets that will be won by the match winner versus the number won by the match loser. Correct score betting in tennis is worth exploring – a good understanding of the form of the participants and their recent results means that one can predict set scores with some degree of accuracy.
Example: Andy Murray takes on Rafael Nadal in a tennis match. Odds are offered on the full possible selection of results for the third set. A punter bets on the set being a close one, and takes the 15/1 odds offered on the set being won 7-5 by Nadal. Nadal wins the set 7-5, so the bet is paid out at 15/1.When to bet on correct scores
Correct score betting is always a high-risk option, which is why the odds offered on these markets are so good. However, there are times when these types of bets can be made with a little more accuracy. Generally, it’s not advisable to place a single correct score bet on a market. Instead place a selection of correct score bets, spreading your stake around while ensuring that you’ll still make an overall profit if one of your bets wins.
For example, say Chelsea is due to play Barcelona. Odds of 11/2 are offered on a score 2-1 to Chelsea, odds of 12/1 are offered on a 2-0 score to Chelsea and odds of 10/1 are offered on a score of 1-1. You bet £10 on all three options for a total stake of £30. If any one of these bets wins, you'll make an overall profit.What to take into account
Factors you should take into account when considering a correct score bet include:
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Correct score markets in football are one of the biggest long shots punters can take. Luckily with the score going up by factors of one at a time it’s a little easier to predict than a rugby or cricket score, but it’s still a tough call nonetheless.
Odds for correct score betting are usually quite high but it’s always worth a shot on the off chance and if one comes off for you, you can usually net a hefty reward. The possibilities are nigh on endless but if you’re looking for a little added interest in a football match you’re watching it gives you good reason to watch on with excitement.
The bets are quite easy to place, but very few, if any bookmakers have specified coupons for it.An Example of Correct Score Betting
Different bookies will lay out their correct score bets in different ways, but Ladbrokes on the web tend to set out in table format that can be a little difficult to follow. Their correct score options are displayed next to an odds link, which just needs a click.
If you’d be looking to put any of these results into an accumulator you can, but just bear in mind you’ll need time to jump from game to game. So throwing one of these on just before kick off may not be the easiest move.Correct Score Group Betting
Certain bookies make it a little easier to get a correct score right by offering group betting on several outcomes, into one bet. While the odds decrease from having up to three correct selections on the line it can be pretty fruitful if you fancy a roundabout score, still offering a decent return.
Sky Bet does an overall better job of laying out your options than most.Other Types of Correct Score Betting
While predicting the complete outcome of a game may be a little difficult, there are other ways of placing money on how teams will fare scoring wise for most of the top games.
Winning margin odds offer great value if you fancy a tight affair or a drubbing in one team’s favour, with markets to cover you if you fancy either side to win by one, two or three goals. The markets are barely featured unless they are specials or red hot tips that a pundit has promoted, but you can find them usually in the full time score betting section.
Win to nil markets are also popular for punters who fancy a certain team’s defensive capabilities, but you’re always running the risk of the bet being ruined in a split second, and it’s just not that fun. However, there are plenty of correct score denominations to choose from if that’s your favourite game.
Sure Informations for Correct score from CLUBS
Correct score gambling is all about betting on what you think the final outcome of a football match will be. There are occasionally correct score markets available on other sports, but football is by the far the largest and most commonly used by bookmakers. correct score football betting.
So, for example, with a top Premier League side playing at home to a team considered to be much weaker, 1-0 and 2-0 may be around the 5-1 mark, 3-0 at around 7-1, 4-0 at c.12-1, 1-1 at around 9-1 and a 0-1 away win at c.25-1.
And when one side is extremely strongly fancied to beat another – as may happen with a Premier League giant at home to a non-league potential giant killer in the third round of the FA Cup, for example – then the odds get even more interesting.
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Correct score betting is notoriously difficult to predict, but you should use science to get it right. Here, Frederick Steiner explains how mathematics can bring you a winning formula.
It’s 1 October 2003, and it’s Champions League night. You might recall it. It was the night that Manchester United travelled to Stuttgart, while Chelsea entertained Besiktas at Stamford Bridge. Both of the British teams were favourites to win, but it turned out to be another of those nights when commentators reach for their clichés about how unpredictable football is and how its unpredictability is what makes it so great.
To some extent they’re right. Who would have predicted that United would lose 2-1 and Chelsea would go down 2-0 at home? Certainly not the expert pundits, or most punters at the bookies. But I backed both scores correctly: the first at 16/1 and the second at an immensely satisfying 109/1. A week earlier I’d also plumped for Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-2 at 33/1 (they did), and my mood was further enhanced when Fulham triumphed 2-0 at Blackburn. I’d backed that at 49/1, so as you can imagine, I was flying.
Was this a fluke, or do I have some kind of secret to predicting scores? The answer is neither, or both, depending on how you look at it. I do know how to make correct score betting profitable over the long run, but if you’re after some kind of secret formula that predicts the score of each result, then you’re a dreamer.
A childhood friend of mine is bright, excellent company and successful. Yet his most striking feature is that he’s a terrible gambler. He’s perhaps the worst I’ve ever seen. If he were new to betting, or perhaps suffering from some type of emotional disorder, his woeful punting would be understandable. But he is, by clinical definitions at least, sane.
My friend will always back his first hunch, which is usually devoid of rational thought. It’s based on what he thinks or, more frequently, feels is going to happen, and sometimes it pays huge dividends. Overall though, like every punter who bets on hunches, he loses money. Boring concepts such as mathematics are conspiring against him, which is why I adopt a different approach.
‘You’re such a smart-arse,’ he moans at me. ‘You’re basically just a boring maths geek. But you win. It’s so annoying.’
For once my friend is right. Successful gambling is about crunching numbers. It’s about playing the odds. It’s about putting in hours of work and winning. My friend probably has more fun, but he pays for it. I bet on outcomes when I’ve calculated that the odds are in my favour. For example, if I work out that the probability of a 1-0 home win is 12 per cent – the real odds should be around 7/1 ((1_0.12) – 1 = 7.3) – I’ll have a punt if I can get at least 8/1. In betting terms, that means that if I bet £1 on that game 100 times, I’ll win on 12 of them and lose 88. At 8/1, I make a profit of £8 (£12 x 8 – £88 = £8). At 7/1 I lose £4 (12 x £7 – £88 = -£4), yet on both occasions I’ve backed 12 winners.
That’s the first lesson anyone who wants to make money out of correct score betting has to learn. Betting when the odds are in your favour will yield profits in the long run. It’s simply the reverse of what the bookmakers usually do. The skill is playing only when you know you have the advantage. If you keep backing when the prices are in your favour, you’ll get the odd break and should profit in the long run. That’s just mathematics, which is why the approach works, but it needs patience.
The point is that you’re not trying to guess the result. Sometimes you’ll back a team you think is going to lose (just as I did with Besiktas), which seems counter-intuitive. You’ll also back a hell of a lot of losers, but you probably already do anyway. My friend thinks my method is insane. In fact, it’s incredibly sane, but boring.
So how do you know when the odds are in your favour? The first thing to remember is that they usually won’t be. You may think that the 9/1 on Bolton to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Villa Park advertised in Ladbrokes’ window looks attractive, but once you’ve crunched your numbers it probably won’t be.
At least punters have an advantage here, inasmuch as they don’t need to have a bet unless they want to. Bookies have to take bets, so you can ignore that advert and take a better price elsewhere. But how can you be sure that the best price is a good bet? To work this out, some pretty heavy number crunching is required. Most gamblers, even serious ones, won’t want the hassle of applying this theory each week. I’ve provided some reference on the Inside Edge site (see Charts 1 and 2), which you can use as cheat sheets to give you a guide about when to bet. But to understand the theory, I recommend you read on.
Cast your mind back to your schooldays and you might recall learning about the Poisson distribution during maths classes. If your memory is really good, you might even remember that the Poisson distribution is a good way of modelling situations with a number of independent random events occurring in a given time or place. Certain conditions are needed for the Poisson to be applicable. The variable can’t be a negative or a fraction; the events should be separate and independent of each other; they should be equally likely to occur in each period; and the random events should also be rare. If you haven’t dropped off yet, you’ll have noticed that this description applies to goals during a football match. Goals (events) occur randomly and rarely within a 90-minute period. So, for example, if you’re interested in betting on the number of goals in a game and you know that the mean number of goals per game is two, then the Poisson distribution will provide a very close fit and allow you to calculate the probabilities of different scores. If, on the other hand, you were betting on a basketball game, where scoring is more frequent, the Poisson distribution wouldn’t be applicable.
In the simplest terms, if you know that, on average, a team scores 1.2 goals per game, the Poisson says that the same team has a 30 per cent chance of not scoring in a given game (see Chart 1). There are tables of similar Poisson probabilities in the appendices of your old maths textbooks (if you can be bothered to dig them out), but I wouldn’t recommend using them. Using an Excel spreadsheet is much easier to do these calculations. It has a Poisson function built in and is very easy to set up. Just read the manual, feed in the mean goals for each team and let the computer
If you’re rejoining us after bunking off the maths lesson, the important thing you’ve missed is that the probability of a team scoring any number of goals during a match can be calculated, providing you know what the mean (average) number of goals is.
The easiest way to calculate the average is to divide the number of goals a team has scored (let’s say, this season) by the number of games it has played. While this approach is better than simply guessing that tonight’s game is going to finish 2-1, I recommend you use a more accurate approach, taking into account the relative strengths of each side. The best bit here is that you don’t have to work any of this out for yourself, as all spread betting companies will have done the hard work for you. They publish spreads on supremacy and total goals for most top football matches and they (usually) know what they’re talking about. So if total goals are quoted at 2 and supremacy is 0.4, your average goals are 1.2 and 0.8.
The maths geeks can feed these figures into their spreadsheets, while the rest of you can easily use the table in Chart 1. The spreadsheet model will be more accurate, but if you aren’t prepared to put in the graft you can’t expect the same returns. Let’s assume that you’ve worked out that in a particular game the home team should score 1.6 goals on average, while the away team should register 1.2. Using the table you can work out the probability of each possible score.
What is the chance of the match finishing 0-0, for example? You know the probabilities on each side failing to score are 20 per cent and 30 per cent, so you simply multiply these figures together to tell you that result has a six per cent chance of happening (0.2 x 0.3 = 0.06). Similarly, a 1-1 draw has an 11.5 per cent chance of happening (0.32 x 0.36 = 0.115), while there’s a 7.8 per cent chance of a 2-0 home win (0.26 x 0.3 = 0.078). The striking thing about these calculations is they show how unlikely you are to actually pick the correct score. A 2-0 home win would hardly class as a shock result, yet you’re only going to get that one right 7.8 per cent of the time. That’s why bookies make money. You think there’s a greater chance of something happening than there actually is and you bet on it. Well now you won’t.
So how can you actually use these numbers to make money? The bookies know everything I’ve just told you (and more) and I’ve already mentioned that their prices are rarely good value. So what’s the point?
Firstly, bookies do occasionally offer odds that should be taken. They offer prices (that is, they need to attract or discourage business for a particular bet) and they don’t always follow probabilities. For example, the 33/1 on Arsenal’s 3-2 victory over Newcastle, which I mentioned at the beginning of this piece, was placed with Coral. I enjoyed that one, chiefly because that type of opportunity is rare.
For the most part there are better prices on the online exchanges, where you’ll usually be able to find plenty of value correct score bets, or you can post your own odds. Let’s go back to the example of the 2-0 home win using the table, but this time using the digital odds preferred by the exchanges. (Digital odds are essentially the decimal version of traditional odds, only you add one to the result. So even money is 2 and 7/2 is 4.5).
As you’ve seen, the probability of the 2-0 score actually happening is 7.8 per cent, which means you’ll want digital odds of 13 (to convert, you divide 1 by the probability, so 0.078 = 12.82). You’ll then need to add a margin to give you a profit and also to account for any errors in your calculations (it’s not an exact science). It’s up to you how much you add, but remember that the higher the margin, the fewer bets you’ll find. I recommend you start by adding about ten per cent and see how you go. In this case, you’ll not bet on a 2-0 home win unless you can get digital odds of 14.1 (12.82 x 1.1) or better.
If you’ve followed all of this, you’ll have worked out that you’re going to lose on more correct score bets than you win. That’s fine, because if you get your sums right, you’ll bag some of those huge winners I tempted you with at the beginning. Those wins should give you a profit in the long run, but correct score betting is incredibly volatile. Chart 2 shows how much of a roller coaster ride it is, as it details my profit and loss in terms of points (a 5-1 win = five points) over a 38-week period. You can see how you have fantastic weeks where you look like a genius, sandwiched in between plenty of costly weeks. Just console yourself that in the long run you’ll come out on top – providing you’ve got your sums right.Betting Highlights Today Today’s Top Stories
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