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Free Rugby League World Cup betting tips: Ian Millward - s team-by-team preview of RLWC 2017 - Sporting Life

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Rugby League Free Rugby League World Cup betting tips: Ian Millward's team-by-team preview of RLWC 2017

October 24 2017, 09:31

Two-time Super League winner Ian Millward brings you his team-by-team guide to the 2017 Rugby League World Cup and offers up his best bets for the tournament.

Twice a Grand Final winner as coach of St Helens, Ian will be working at the tournament as a TV pundit for the BBC, who will cover England's games.

We spoke to the Australian, who also coached Leigh, Wigan and Castleford in the UK, about the event, which gets under way on Friday.

He's delivered his verdict on each team and picked out his best bets for what promises to be be a great festival of rugby in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.

Ian will also be joining us for weekly previews as the tournament progresses - check back on Thursday for his verdict on the first round of pool matches.

For more on the tournament, including the full match schedule and squad lists, check out our full Rugby League World Cup guide.

Pool A - Australia, England, France, Lebanon

Australia are ranked number one in the world and are a very, very short price to be crowned champions.

They are the defending champions, of course, but they have long struggled to get over how they lost the 2008 World Cup to New Zealand.

Since Mal Meninga came in to the job, the main thing he’s done is to create a new culture and a new desire and they are probably the most resourced team in the competition.

Importantly they have the best players in the key positions. Throughout the tournament, everyone will have some big forwards and some lightning-fast wingers but it’s the people who control the game – full-back, the two half-backs and the hooker – who have the biggest role to play.

In these four positions, Australia have the best players. Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith won the NRL with Melbourne this season. They are the best and have proved it. I also expect Meninga to go with Michael Morgan at six ahead of another Melbourne star, Cameron Munster.

Morgan is one to keep an eye on. He’s had an outstanding season in the NRL; he’s really gifted and one to watch with his skill.

They are a very mobile team and are also smooth to watch in attack due to those four key players who play regularly together for their club and the Queensland Origin team.

I can see either Valentine Holmes or Josh Mansour be the tournament’s leading tryscorer. Both have real speed. My preference is for Holmes. He’ll knows how get the ball home and will score tries in this team.

It’s 45 years since England, or rather Great Britain as it was then, won the tournament. They are ranked third in the world but the big plus for them is in the halves.

They are not as good in that area as Australia but I’ve got a massive rap for George Williams. He can attack and play others in front of him and create opportunities for both others and himself.

Gareth Widdop is an outstanding attacking player and Luke Gale could be the missing link with Widdop at six.

Gale needs to step up in this tournament and coach Wayne Bennett’s style of a high completion rate, high kicking game and big defence suits him.

He can be the orchestrator and let people like Widdop be the flair players.

At hooker, England have Josh Hodgson and James Roby, very experienced players who are very good at their game.

Off the back of their big forwards, Gale and co should be in the position to get some clean ball and get on the attack.

I’m also really looking forward to seeing how Castleford’s Michael McMeekan stacks up against world-class players.

On the wing, Jermaine McGillvary and Ryan Hall are both very well equipped for aerial kicks to them and have the ability to score tries.

I’m anticipating England getting through to the final and at 5/4 they look a good bet to get to that stage.

The French are in a tough pool here and they are not a team I rate. I always feel when it gets tough, their players seem to lose composure.

Many of them have also been disappointing in terms of form this year.

The best French player for me is Julian Bousquet, their big front-rower. I’m interested to see how he handles himself against teams like Australia and England.

However, France are heading for an early exit.

Lebanon will be led by Robbie Farah at hooker and he’ll have some strong forwards around him but they drop away very quickly in the outside backs.

Parramatta’s Mitchell Moses, at half-back, has had a very good NRL season and has a very good kicking game.

They will have the ability to build pressure off the back of Farah. Their forwards can take over and they will stay in the centres for long minutes.

However, they will lack the quality to finish it off.

Pool B - New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga, Scotland New Zealand

The Kiwis have had an awful record in the UK in any tournament but not since the 2006 Tri-Series, which they lost on a golden point, have they lost a major rugby league tournament in the Southern Hemisphere – they won the 2008 World Cup and the next two Four Nations events (in 2010 and 2014).

So their long-term form in tournaments down here is good and they are ranked second in the world to Australia. However, they have some key players out, notably Kieran Foran at half-back, while the best 13 in the world, Jason Taumalolo, has defected to Tonga.

Some other key players have really struggled playing club football in the NRL this year, which is summed up by the surprise inclusion of Thomas Leuluai, of the Wigan Warriors.

They will rely on Shaun Johnson and Te Maire Martin in the halves but Roger Tuivasa-Sheck at full-back is coming in off a quiet season in the NRL.

Two shining lights are on the wings – Jordan Rapana and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak are both prolific tryscorers. Rapana is around $2.50 (6/4) here in Australia and Watene-Zelezniak $5.50 (9/2) to be the team’s top tryscorer and that’s too big a gap for me. The latter is tall and does find his way to the tryline.

However, with those players out and others not performing during the year, I’ve got some doubts about the Kiwis in this tournament.

Ranked fifth in the world, Samoa have some really big forwards.

They have an outstanding centre in Joseph Leilua. He has got some real skill and creates a lot but defensively can be found out.

New Zealand Warriors’ Ken Maumalo is a tall athlete on the wing who will thrive if he gets some really good service.

The problem with Samoa is they have a lot of players who struggle with high completion rates and so they don’t get into a lot of rhythm.

Their forwards will get them a long way but the halves won’t be able to take advantage of it.

This tournament will be an exciting step for this team.

The best number 13 in the world, Jason Taumalolo, has opted to play for them instead of New Zealand, while Australian Andrew Fifita has also defected. Those moves have given Tonga a massive lift – and also seen their odds shorten.

They have never managed to get past the group stage in the World Cup but that can change this year.

Their biggest problem is in the halves and they’ve not got an accomplished hooker. They do have really big forwards though and two outstanding outside-backs in Michael Jennings and Daniel Tupou. One of those will be their leading tryscorer.

They are in a group with New Zealand and Samoa. They could trouble the Kiwis but I’d expect Tonga v Samoa to be the key match with the winner going through.

I’m a bit torn between those two sides at the moment but with Taumalolo and Fifita in their team I’m going with Tonga.

This is Scotland’s fourth successive World Cup and they come into it ranked fourth which is very, very high.

They will play with a lot of passion on the back on their half-back, Danny Brough. They will rely a lot on him.

They are missing Euan Aitken, the centre from St George Illawarra, and Ryan Brierley is also out, so they may lack a bit of attacking flair.

However, their biggest issue is a really tough draw. It’s the toughest group and unfortunately they are going to be victims of the pool they are in.

I expect their last two games will see them knocked around. They are short on size and mobility and passion will only take them so far.

I can see those last couple of games being blowouts and I can’t see them being able to replicate the form they’ve shown in the UK on wet pitches. They are not going to get those conditions here.

One angle to look at is opposing them in the second half. I think they may well concede a lot of points after the interval in their games.

Pool C - Papua New Guinea, Wales, Ireland Papua New Guinea

I’ve got the co-hosts down to win Pool C. Many of their players come in off a fantastic season in the Queensland Cup, the level below the NRL here in Australia. The PNG Hunters won that competition this year.

Their home games will be sell-outs – their supporters are real fanatics and rugby league is the number one sport in the country.

They do lack size but make up for that be being very mobile.

They have two very good hookers in Kurt Baptiste and James Segeyaro – they will be running a lot from dummy-half, causing problems - while Nene MacDonald is a very tall winger from St George Illawarra who is a prolific tryscorer and one to look out for.

I expect them to win their group and progress.

It’s really hard to separate Wales and Ireland in Pool C. They've got a lot of UK-based players and just look like they lack a bit of quality without a lot of Super League or NRL players.

Wales have got Papua New Guinea first up and I'm interested to see how they come out of that physical battle in terms of wear and tear.

They probably lack a little bit of size compared to Ireland, who will have the bigger pack.

The Welsh will rely on passion but I really struggle with some of their players. I don’t think they are of the quality to create too many problems.

I give Ireland the edge over Wales but I think they will also struggle and can’t see them topping the group which they’ll need to do to go through.

They look a pretty average team. Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook looks their best forward and his St Helens team-mate Kyle Amor will give them something in the pack.

But there are a lot of other guys from the Championship and I can’t see them toppling PNG in this pool.

Pool D - Fiji, USA, Italy

Fiji have been to the semi-finals of the last two World Cups and I expect them to win Pool D this time around. 8/11 about them doing so looks good odds.

Jarryd Hayne is a superstar and he’ll revert to six as they are another team who struggle with competent halves.

They also have two outstanding wingers – Suliasi Vunivalu, of Melbourne Storm, and Akuila Uate, from Manly. Vunivalu looks a real good bet to be his team’s leading tryscorer and could well make an impact on the tournament as a whole.

There’s a very good hooker in the team in the shape of Apisai Koroisau, also of Manly.

He can be a very good half-back too and gives them some really good options from dummy-half. He’ll help set them around the ruck and take some pressure off Hayne.

Fiji should not be underestimated.

The USA were a real revelation in the last World Cup and everyone bought into them.

This year though they’ve got more players from the local league in America which tells you straight away they are going to struggle.

Bureta Faramino, joining Hull next year from Parramatta Eels, is a centre or a winger who will probably score a couple of tries for them.

However, they are not going to create a lot of opportunities. I can’t see them getting anywhere near Fiji or Italy and I’ll be surprised if they get into double figures in terms of points in those games.

It’s great to see these players getting the opportunity but unfortunately the quality isn’t up to it.

Paul Vaughan, from my club St George Illawarra, in the front row is one to watch. He’s had a sensational season in the NRL, scoring eight tries.

James Tedesco, unlucky not to make the Australia side, is at full-back. He’s the player to watch in this group and will score tries, especially against tiring players in the warm weather expected.

However, around the stars they lack a bit of quality and I worry about their ability to sustain performance levels for 80 minutes.

That lack of depth means Fiji will be better equipped to get over the line in this group.

As the odds suggest, Australia will win the World Cup. They’ve had great preparation and have the best players.

I like England to reach the final at the price. They have plenty of talent at their disposal and look a good bet with New Zealand having plenty of problems to overcome.

In the group betting, Fiji to win their group looks good at 8/11, I'd be happy with 1/2. If you can find a firm to take the bet, put them in treble with Australia and Papua New Guinea. All three really should finish top and anything around even money looks good.

In the tournament top tryscorer market, I feel Australia’s Valentine Holmes is a worthy favourite and I’m happy to back him at 7/1. He’s likely to play six matches and can take full advantage.

However, the value in the market lies with Fiji’s Suliasi Vunivalu.

They could run up plenty of points against USA and Wales and should also beat Italy to give themselves a decent quarter-final draw.

At 22/1, he’s a good each-way shout.

If there’s going to be a real upset in this tournament, I think it could well involve New Zealand. Tonga or Samoa beating them in Group B looks possible but instead of an outright bet, I’ll look more at that in my weekly previews – I’ll be back on Thursday to preview the opening weekend’s matches which include New Zealand v Samoa and Australia v England.

Where to watch on TV: Premier Sports (all games); BBC (England games & final)

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Posted at 0830 BST on 23/10/17; updated at 1030 BST (taking into account group treble was not being taken due to related contingencies)

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