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91% Of All Paddy Power Bets In Past Two Days Have Been For Trump, Zero Hedge

91% Of All Paddy Power Bets In Past Two Days Have Been For Trump

Recall that in the days leading to the Brexit vote, one of the most closely followed indicators of public sentiment was online bookmaker betting, where in a curious split, the majority of smaller wages was for Brexit, however the total amount betted was skewed by a handful of outsized bets on "remain." However, when it comes to Trump, there appears to be less confusion - or interference - at least in the last several days.

According to a recent Paddy Power tweet, on Monday and Tuesday the Republican candidate outshone his rival in terms of both the number and the volume of wagers, as just shy of 100,000 euros ($111,000) in bets came in, with 91 percent of that for Trump.

In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh.

— Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) November 1, 2016

Cited by Bloomberg, Féilim Mac An Iomaire, a spokesman for the company, confirmed the report saying that "this election's been a serious betting anomaly. Even before October 28, when FBI Director Jack Comey announced the discovery of new e-mails potentially related to a probe that has troubled the Clinton campaign, money placed on a Trump victory amounted to almost the same as that bet on his rival, despite her lead in opinion polls.

"You don't normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people's minds," Mac An Iomaire said.

In an attempt to talk down the potential significance of the recent surge in online betting for Trump, Bloomberg notes that "U.K.'s June referendum bruised professional pollsters by dealing an unexpected blow to the status quo. Yet another lesson of that vote is that betting flows are not a foolproof indicator, with bookies reporting a surge in bets that the U.K. electorate would choose to remain in the European Union on the morning of the vote. The next day, the "Leave" camp emerged triumphant." What it ignores, and what we pointed out repeatedly over the summer, is that the vast majority of bets pre-Brexit were for Brexit, however in what some have said was a deliberate attempt to skew the result, a few prominent, large betters were shifting the odds in Remain's favor. They were wrong.

Indeed, the recent Trump wave is confirmed by various market indicators with the Mexican peso, Credit Suisse AG's "ultimate market indicator," weakening more than 3 percent since Comey's letter, as Trump's improving prospects jolt the currency.

Still, the probability of a Trump victory implied by offshore bookmakers' odds are now at 28.5%, according to Convergex market strategist Nicholas Colas. That's roughly the same as flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row, and matches estimates by professional polling analysts.

For Paddy Power, which reports third-quarter earnings on Friday, the stakes are higher than most. As we reported previously, on October 18 Paddy Power announced it would start paying out on a Clinton victory, having initially offered a Donald Trump presidency at 100/1. Should Trump win, the outcome may be yet another bankruptcy, only this time it won't involve a Trump casino.

  • Printer-friendly version
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:43 PM
  • 95

trump by a landslide

Man cities are calling up their guard, gearing up their police force and emergency responders. I would have to agree, "THEY" know its going to be a landslide.

One big difference between this and BREXIT is electronic voting machines. BREXIT was done on good old paper ballots. Trump 2016

If they really have the goods on Hillary, along the lines of what the True Pundit article described, she will be indicted before the election. No one, not Obama, Lynch, Comey, et al, are going to cover for her. They will only be implicating themselves further and why would they if they knew what was going to happen to hillary anyway?

I don't gamble but had I bet my own prediction of Trump win here in March I would be doing well, so would you.

By late March, he was the minus-380 favorite.

Hillary Clinton will not be President, I don't even think she will be the nominee.

There is nothing in her chart to suggest either.

Bernie Sanders does not have the chart to win or is he deeply tied to the US chart, maybe to Israel

but not America.

Trump will be President, he has his Ascendant conjunct the Royal Regulus fixed star.

Now by progression his Sun conjuncts his Ascendant and Regulus, which is why his people often

call him the Lion. Why he wears the lions mane and eyebrows. Ascendant is how we appear to the

His descendant conjuncts the US Moon, he is very close to the American people and homeland.

His Sun/Moon is conjunct US Ascendant and descendant, destiny and 911/Saturn event.

This is a Uranus/Pluto election like 1933 was, but this passes and January 2017 Donald J. Trump puts

his hand on the bible.

What odds would you give, if Trump actually wins by enough that Dem fuckery can't steal it, that he would be assassinated within weeks - probably by a Muslim terrorist the FBI had previously investigated, or perhaps by 'Iran'?

That would be the trigger.

Looks like a Trump landslide. Hillary's demographics of millenials, minorities and democrats are down vs. 2012 yet overall voting is up significantly.

Following Brexit, I was looking for a surge in Independents voting as an indicator the former middle-class dissillusioned with politics would come out and vote for Trump and against Globalism and its minions. This is exactly what we're seeing. (Ind up 36%)

According to the IBD poll, Trump is also winning with white woman 48%-40%. If a white female candidate who's spent half her campaign smearing Trump as sexist and worse is losing to him with white woman, well.

I've even noticed Fox and various politicians really flipping hard these last few days.

Everything is pointing to a MASSIVE blowout victory for Trump.

Hillary could still get Barack to start a nuclear war with Russia, prior to the election, and have Barry declare martial law, and postpone the election. There is going to be no low, that hillary and billbo wont stoop to, to steal this election from the people. they hate the people. the people are the only thing between them and the whitehouse, and they believe they should forever live in the whitehouse. bill wants the blowjobs back, under SS protection, and hillary wants the wealth and power.

Here in Reno, NV, they are even giving the kids the day off from school on election day since so many schools are used as polling places here.

Washoe County is one of the 7 counties they said would decide the election.

Must be a zoo there.

"Man cities are calling up their guard".

What, may I presume to ask, is "Man cities"?

''Féilim Mac An Iomaire'' I'd love to hear non-Irish try to pronounce that one.

Called Paddy for short.

Didn't Paddy call the vote a few weeks ago and paid out for HRC? If Trump wins in the end then they gotta pay twice.

Gee, maybe ZH should do an article about that. I'd read it, wouldn't you?

My Irish surname has 7 letters. 700 years ago in Gaelic it was spelled with 15, but pronounciation is the same. There is a reason most of us know how to spell our ancient Celtic names in Gaelic. it's code, lol.

Pronounced Fay-il-im Mawk On E-O-Mer

Maith an Buachaill A Chara. Mise freisin i gconai i mBaile Atha Cliath.

Tá mé as Baile Átha Cliath (in aice Glas Naíon) , mo chara :)

tá an bord anseo lán de Micks!

. bheir mi araon de do shùilean as na 'n nach eil deoghaill anns mò ball.

Fiú Mick i gCeanada, a bhfuil a sinsear bhí fir ó Mumhan agus mo mháthair ainmnithe Murphy.

Na h Éireannach ar ZH, tá sé go hiontach ar fad!

Fuckin Northside gurrier scum, and just down the road from Ballymun, probably the worst hole on the Northside, besides Fingalas or Kewlock

Since Paddy Power has already paid out for a Hillary win, I think they should pronounce it as O-Fuc-Mee.

Hahaha. very good :)

Did you mean Phil McCracken or

Barry McCokiner or

"Mick". There you go.

It means in Orish that Bono and the rest of U2 are tax cheats and c***s***k**s.

Fay Lim Mock On Ummera

Nixon had a 49 State Landslide. Trump will eclipse that record with a 57 State Landslide.

I just flipped a quarter,as randomly as I could, and it came up heads twice.

I hope those f**king Mics at Paddy Power lose their shirt or Leprechaun outfit. F them. They pulled the same shit with Brexit.

Some of those Orish are right cunts - especially Bono.

In fairness to the leprechans, they just wager against the money being put down by punters. Could care less who the winner is as long as they get their percentage.

However, paying out ahead of actual results (especially in an election) is pretty arrogant. With the cost that usually goes with that.

Expecially after Brexit, you'd think they might be a tad more circumspect.

NOT arrogant. but STUPID and costly!

For anyone that doesn't know, Paddy Power pay out early on many markets, those that give them the most exposure. Its all part of their publicity machine. Yes it eats into the bottom line but you need to be out in front in that business. PP are seen as the fun bookie & thats what they want. It's just another of many stunts these guys pull & they go allout promoting & marketing it when they lose on an early payout. Clownish, yes, costly, no, all part of the business (& losses can be used to reduce your tax buurden no doubt). Now they're even getting free exposure on ZH, a brand new market for them.

Yeah, 'Silly old me, losing my money', that's their favourite ploy, especially on markets that are a big talking point among people who don't habitually gamble. Run a winning account and they close you down. Run a loser and they'll come to you with a free bet to get you back in their web. Nobody respects a sucker. So, wise up Zerohedge and stop giving free advertising to these parasites.

Betfair currently showing Clinton 1.36/1; Trump 3.5/1(down from 5/1 four days ago)

Oct 16th total votes: Clinton 220,159 Trump 447,650

Oct 20th, Clinton gained 5,268; Trump 18,178

Oct 24th, Clinton gained 8,933; Trump 29,067 since Oct 20th

Oct 28th, Clinton gained 5,353; Trump 21,861 since Oct 24th

Nov 2nd, Clinton gained 23,506; Trump 29,387 since Oct 28th

You can see after consistently attracting the lion's share of votes previous to right now, and while still leading in popularity, Trump has howevr fallen back closer to Clinton following a greater surge of interest in voting as we get closer to the election.

Current totals are Clinton 263,237; Trump 546,143

This is better than BitCoin!

With predicious you can have exposure to both. Bet all my remaining internet bucks on Trump.

"It wasn't Comey or his integrity.

FBI Director James Comey reopened the agency's investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails last week because "almost 100" agents threatened to resign before next week's election, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay told Newsmax TV .

"A few weeks ago, almost 100 agents were threatening Comey that they were going to resign — and that kind of pressure is what turned him around," DeLay, 69, the majority leader from 2003 to 2005, said on Tuesday's "The Steve Malzberg Show." "It wasn't Comey or his integrity.

The judge said this would happen a long time ago and I thought he was full of it until now. Napolitano has been vindicated.

If the equity markets are oversold when Trump wins, they will jump 5% Nov 9.

If the markets are overbought, they will fall 5%.

Better to react than to anticipate.

A Trump victory is uber Bullish for markets 'cause the economy will actually start to work again. Instead of spending Billions on non-productive war, this money will be spent on infrastructure---roads, bridges, etc creating millions of jobs and therefore consumers who can jump-start this Osama bin Bama recession.

I agree but not in the short term, Trump is for actual production, tangible goods, infrastructure. Money is now allocated in the opposite, so you will see a mass sell off and a reallocation of wealth. Construction companies stand to make out big time.

Yes, we've go to undo the MASSIVE bubble that the Fed inflated as well as business strangling regulation implemented by unaccountable (Congress' fault) gubmint agencies. Then, businesses and people will once again prosper.

Still not many details from the Don's camp.

That makes me nervous, if he turns out to be an empty suit like the last guy it would be very, very unfortunate.

I LOVE Paddy Power - s Social Media I Bet with William Hill

I LOVE Paddy Power’s Social Media Activity….But I Bet with William Hill

I love social media. I also love a little flutter on the football on a weekend. I’m a self-confessed fan of Paddy Power’s social media activity in particular. The Facebook page is always witty, always timely, always attracting huge volumes of engagement and, despite my digital-marketer-tainted cynical attitude towards brands touting engagement on social platforms, I share a lot of what Paddy Power posts.

I find this stuff funny. And I’m not the only one.

And then, when I’ve finishing chuckling at Paddy Power’s updates and sharing them with my friends, I go off and I spend my weekly betting budget on William Hill (and, yes… I am fully aware that it’s a mug’s game ;-)).

Of course, my own personal experience is insignificant in the grand scheme of things and is no basis at all to make a wholesale assessment of the value (or lack) of social engagement to Paddy Power or William Hill. But just a few thoughts anyway…

Why William Hill?

I don’t follow William Hill on social media. I did have a quick glance at their Facebook page and found it dull and boring. But I’ll still bet with them. Why?

Because I am lazy. I was already registered with William Hill and I frankly can’t be bothered to register another account with Paddy Power. I bet on the move, generally, and the idea of touch screen typing to register a new account is not appealing.

I’ve already got a card registered with William Hill. I’m already their customer and, despite the fact that their Facebook activity is about as funny and entertaining as a dental abscess, they haven’t pissed me off or given me a reason to go elsewhere. I’m satisfied as a customer. I don’t need them to be absolutely hilarious on social media for me to spend my money with them. I just need an easy to use website, decent odds on the football and for them to pay out quickly on the odd occasion that I win.

In short, I’ve been married to William for years. He’s reliable, he’s not bad looking and I kinda like him. I’m not going to divorce him just cos Paddy’s funny.

Am I of any Value to Paddy Power?

I don’t (and probably won’t) bet on Paddy Power. Like I said, I’m lazy and quite content with William Hill. But does that make me a worthless social media follower for them?

Probably not. Granted, I won’t have any direct effect on the money going through their website. However, I share their material. I sometimes link to them when I’m writing about their social activity or some of the insane media stunts they’ve done (loved that Olympics poster). That is all making a small contribution towards this:

Something that definitely has measurable value.

So I might not be a customer. But I (like hundreds of thousands of others who engage with their content, link to their site and discuss them online like I’m doing right now) am indirectly of some value to the company.

Anyway, you’ll have to excuse me. As the English football season has now finished, I’m off to do some Britain’s Got Talent betting. (Yes, I am that sad).

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